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HUGO team releases 2014 hurricane outlook

  • Tuesday, May 20, 2014

TS = named storms per season; NH = number of hurricanes; MH = major hurricanes (category 3 or higher); ECLF = number of landfall hurricanes on the Atlantic seaboard; GMLF = number of landfall hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast. *The number of landfalls is given as a probability in order of decreasing likelihood in two stages: most likely and second most likely.

The Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) Project at Coastal Carolina University anticipates a “below to near normal” hurricane season for 2014, according to its extended range forecast for the North Atlantic.

According to the HUGO outlook (detailed in the table below), the most likely scenario is that no hurricanes will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast or on the Gulf Coast during the 2014 hurricane season (June 1 to Nov. 30); the second most likely scenario is that one hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast, and one hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast.

The outlook, which was tabulated in April 2014, also predicts that there will be a range of nine to 11 (with 10 most likely) tropical storms, three to six (with five most likely) hurricanes and one to two (with one most likely) major hurricanes this season. Updated outlooks will be released during the hurricane season in June, July and August 2014.

The latest prediction statistics are presented in the outlook listed in the graph.

The HUGO Hurricane Landfall Outlook Program is a unique hurricane model system developed by scientists at Coastal Carolina University and unveiled in 2013. The new model differs from most other hurricane prediction instruments in that it offers landfall probability information. In addition to the seasonal outlook, the model system will predict the track and intensity of any incoming hurricane five days away from landfall.

HUGO outlook reports are updated periodically during the season as new data becomes available from NOAA and other organizations.

For more information about CCU’s HUGO Project, contact Pietrafesa at 843-349-4017 or 704-910-7047 or email lpietraf@coastal.edu. Visit the website at bcmw.coastal.edu.

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